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This article is part of Football FanCast’s The Chalkboard series, which provides a tactical insight into teams, players, managers, potential signings and more…
Marko Arnautovic has left West Ham United and the question on everybody’s lips in east London is this: Can the Hammers replace him?
On the chalkboard
One has to examine Arnautovic’s stats throughout the 2018/19 season to get to the bottom of this and with that comes a caveat.
Arnautovic enjoyed a perfectly serviceable first half of the season but he was diabolical after January, as he effectively downed tools following the transfer saga that first saw him linked with China, and went 11 games without a goal.
Nevertheless, his stats are enlightening.
In 2018/19, the Austria international made 28 appearances for the club. He scored 10 goals and provided four assists.
Per understat, he averaged 2.78 shots per game, with an expected goals (xG) rate of 8.94. Thus, we can ascertain that Arnautovic outscored the expectation; despite finding himself in positions that he perhaps shouldn’t have scored from, he had a penchant for hitting the back of the net. He also averaged 1.62 key passes per 90, meaning that his passes directly led to a shot 1.62 times across the game.
Across the 90 minutes, his xG stood at 0.40. By comparison, Javier Hernandez had an xG-per-90 of 0.53. He only scored seven goals, though, with an xG rate of 7.89 – he scored the goals he was expected to score.
A versatile forward, Arnautovic scored six goals with his right foot, three with his left and one with his head.
Playing as a forward, he averaged 2.87 shots per 90 with an xG of 0.41 – he is prone to efforts from range, but the majority of his goals came in the box.
Indeed, understat tells us that he scored just once from outside the box while seeing nine efforts go off target. Six from range were blocked, while six were saved. His goal actually came from inside the D, too, pointing to an inaccurate penchant for shooting from outside the area. His one goal, against Arsenal, had an xG rate of 0.05 – few would have predicted it would hit the back of the net.
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Anderson the replacement
Arnautovic is not the best striker around.
The fact that he outscores his xG is impressive but the same can be said for Felipe Anderson, who scored nine goals in 2018/19 with an xG rate of 5.53.
The Brazilian, a winger, also laid on four assists but had an expected assist rate of 6.78 – the strikers, namely Arnautovic, were not taking as many chances as they should have been.
Anderson also averaged a higher key pass statistic per 90 – 1.90 to 1.62 – while he was more economical with his shooting. He also missed nine shots from range but scored two, while he averaged just 1.70 shots per game.
Perhaps moving the winger into a false nine position, then, could see Manuel Pellegrini reap a fair few rewards.
Statistically, the two have a similar profile, but Anderson is perhaps a better option, with his dribbling ability and penchant for dropping deep likely to free up space for the likes of Manuel Lanzini and summer signing Pablo Fornals.
He could ultimately save the Irons a fortune.